Anti-Shia or Anti-Iran? Balance of power politics, not a new sectarianism
Greg Gause, University of Vermont

Many observers too easily slide over the distinction between “Shia influence” and “Iranian influence”. I think that the distinction is important both in terms of how Washington is developing its strategy and how events are playing out in the region.

I do not think that Washington sees its strategy as containment of “Shia influence” in the region. I do not think that decision-makers think in these sectarian terms. The Bush Administration wants to contain and roll-back Iranian influence. That includes Iranian-supported Hamas in Palestine, not a Shia organization. That includes the influence of the Syrian regime, which might be sociologically Alawi but is not Islamist or Shia in any political sense. If the Administration thought in sectarian terms, it would be moving away from the Maliki government in Iraq, trying to put together some kind of Sunni Arab-Kurdish coalition…

The Regional Partners: Anti-Iran or anti-Shia?

I would venture to say that the regional leaders of the 6 + 2 states (GCC, Jordan, Egypt) are also seeing the Iranian “threat” more in balance of power terms than in sectarian terms, although here I am extrapolating a bit further from the evidence. Neither the Egyptian nor the Jordanian governments have to worry about domestic Shia populations. Saudi Arabia does, but it has been on a (minor, but interesting in the Saudi context) charm offensive toward its Shia population in the last few years: publicly including Shia leaders in the National Dialogue, municipal elections. I think that these leaders are worried about Iran for classic balance of power reasons, perhaps with a little bit of worry about domestic Shia discontent in the Gulf states (and more than a little in Bahrain). This emphasis on an Iran-centered threat rather than a sectarian Shia threat has been manifested in establishment Saudi editorial writers’ takes on recent events. They have gone to great lengths to say that it is Iran, not the Shia, that are the problem.

Interesting take on the questions of Sunni antipathy toward the Shi’a and Arab antipathy toward Iran over at the Abu Aardvark blog. This post is by Greg Gause, whom I was pleased to host in Riyadh in 2003. Above it on the Aardvark site is a response by Marc Lynch, owner of the site.