I have a full review of National Security in Saudi Arabia: Threats, Responses, and Challenges by Anthony Cordesman and Nawaf Obaid, on my Books page on the main Crossroads Arabia site. Those who read this blog will know that I consider Cordesman among the most knowledgeable commentators on Saudi Arabia. This book is no exception. It is the current benchmark for studies on Saudi national security.
The book–426 pages including endnotes, but no index–gives a thorough picture of the structure of Saudi Arabia’s military as well as those of the countries representing the most serious threats to it: Yemen, Iraq, and principally Iran. Yemen is a threat because of the lengthy and poorly secured border it shares with the kingdom. Iraq, though its military forces are debilitated by its 2003 war with the US and its coalition, holds the potential threat of terrorists and insurrectionists relocating to the kingdom now and in the immediate future. Iran, though, poses the most serious threat through conventional arms (particularly its navy); through non-conventional arms (chemical, biological, and perhaps nuclear); and especially through its ability to close the Straits of Hormuz to 60% of the world’s petroleum export traffic.
The authors also look at the domestic threats that face the country, both paramilitary terrorists and social, demographic, and economic problems. They note that reforms are in progress, that the Saudi government is serious about dealing with its problems, but they also are not sure that the pace of change is adequate.
If you have an interest in Saudi Arabia, where it’s been and where it’s going, you really need to read this book.
You can read my full review here.
RSS feed for comments on this post.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
November:07:2005 - 21:49
There was a draft of this text on the CSIS website some while back. Don’t know if its still there now though.
Would you comment a bit on Saudi-Iran relations? I understand the bit on Iran’s ability to quickly close off oil traffic from the Gulf, but I have a few questions about this.
First, isn’t there an alternative pipeline with capacity to carry oil to the ports on the West coast in Saudi?
Second, isn’t the US presence in Iraq (along with other locations in the West Asia area) sufficient to deter such a threat from Iran against Saudi?
Third, hasn’t there been some rather warming of relations between Saudi and Iran in the past 10 yrs? I remember Cordesman addressing this, but do not remember it being an extensive discussion. I’ve not come across any treatment of this particular topic beyond Cordesman and would appreciate your input. Many thanks!
November:07:2005 - 21:49
Starting from the last question:
Yes, there has been some warming, but only from the deep-freeze to almost normal diplomatic relations. The Saudis are still extremely suspicious of Iran, particularly given Iran’s attempts to create difficulties within the country’s Shi’a population.
I don’t think a US presence is a total deterrent. The US could make it expensive for Iran to create a war, but couldn’t necessarily stop it. Saudi oil facilities are a 5-minute flight from Iranian air fields; even shorter for missiles. Closing the Straits of Hormuz can be accomplished within minutes as well. Iran has shown itself willing to pay high prices in upholding its policy decisions. Even were it to be severely punished afterwards, the damage it’s capable of inflicting would gravely affect the world economy.
Saudi Arabia, according to the book, has some alternatives, but not enough to nearly make up for lost traffic through the Gulf. Pipelines to the west could carry, conceivably, about half of what moves through the Gulf. That diversion would also add at least five days to shipments to Asia, where most of the Gulf’s oil is currently going.