The chaos continues in Egypt. The army has been called in to keep the peace after the regular police (and, apparently, many of the special police) were driven off the streets, their precinct buildings burnt down. Prisoners are reported to have escaped from Demu Prison in Fayoum and are terrorizing the neighborhood (scroll down at the link). Pres. Mubarak has sacked his rubber-stamp cabinet and named Omar Suleiman as his new Vice President. The Internet was shut down and remains down; cell phones had but cut off but now appear to be back in service.
King Abdullah made a formal statement, supporting Mubarak and condemning violence. I think he’s right about the violence. About Mubarak, though, no.
Saudi Arabia—and Saudis in general—have a religiously-based belief that rulers are to be both respected and obeyed. That is not a bad method to keep civil peace. It has its limits though. Leaders are respected only so long as they hold the respect of the people they govern. When people feel themselves abused by their leaders, they demand change, often of those leaders. Leaders can go quietly, as did Tunisia’s Bin Ali, or they can go violently. Unjust leaders deserve neither respect nor obedience, as Mubarak is discovering.
Mubarak, though he may believe differently, is not the Government of the Republic of Egypt. He is its elected leader and that alone. If he no longer holds the confidence of his citizens that he can rule justly, then he needs to go. I suspect there’s a guest palace available in Jeddah if he decides to take a short flight east.
The newly named Vice President, Omar Suleiman, seems a mixed bag. He has extensive experience in Egypt’s foreign affairs and is the point man on Arab-Israeli matters. He comes from the military, so that’s a plus-point when it comes to keeping the Army onside. He is also reputed to have been deeply engaged in keeping domestic opponents to the regime in line, however. According to WikiLeaked cables, Suleiman has not drifted far from Mubarak’s ideas of governance, so this may be simply a case of ‘meet the new boss, same as the old boss’. How the Egyptian street—and here, the ‘Arab Street’ does count for a lot—sees him will decide whether there’s an easy solution that keep Mubarak at his desk. I don’t think it’s going to work.
US-Egyptian relations are important to both countries. Since the time of Sadat, the US has seen Egypt as a power in the Middle East that can, and often does, play a role in maintaining peace. As Henry Kissinger once said, ‘Without Egypt, there is no war.’ To encourage cooperation, the US has been providing Egypt with $1.3 billion in aid annually, since the 1970s. How well Egypt has used that aid is a fair question. The answer, I think, is ‘not at all well’. For a while, Mubarak was a good ruler, easing government controls on business, opening the country to tourists (and their dollars) even from Israel. His government, again for a while, eased constraints on Islamist political parties, but then started reining them in with an iron fist.
The big question, of course, is ‘After Mubarak, what?’
I’m sure Mubarak feels, as did Louis XV, Après moi, le déluge. It’s possible that he’s right. I am not at all confident that were Mubarak to fall his replacement would be liberal, far-sighted, or even very democratic at all. There is some truth in the saying about familiar devils being preferable to new, but strange ones.
Meanwhile, there’s turmoil in Yemen and Jordan, with people taking to the streets to denounce government failings and calling for change. On the streets of Jeddah, a group gathered today to protest the failing of the municipality and the national government to establish sufficient infrastructure to abate floods. On the videotape I saw, it appeared to be about a hundred people or so protesting. It’s not comparable to what’s going on in Egypt, nor is it likely, I think, to act as a fuse toward any kind of explosion. I’m seeing quite a bit of talk about it doing that, but so far that chatter seems to be coming from stock market ‘advisors’ who see easy money being made as the price of oil rockets on fears of just such a thing. It’s all to their financial benefit to promote such rumors, but it doesn’t make it true.
Saudi Arabia is in dire need of its own reforms. There’s no doubt about that. High unemployment, low salaries, ill-educated youths with degrees that do nothing to put them into jobs, half the potential workforce—the female half—is arbitrarily excluded from most work, poor infrastructure… the list goes on. To date, though, those problems have not reached a critical level. They can and, unless changes come more rapidly, they likely will. But not today and not tomorrow.
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January:29:2011 - 23:56
Good analysis! I’ve been watching this closely – and believe it can’t go on much past the weekend. Something has to give. I think the army will step in and then it will be a pull and push situation for several months. Who knows, a general might like it!
If they allow democratic elections, the brotherhood wins. Now that’s an interesting situation. Imagine radical Muslims controlling most Arab governments, from Jordan to Morocco, with the possible exception of Saudi Arabia. Imagine them controlling the Suez and using it to pressure the West, China and India. Imagine an even more aggressive, intolerant Islam. Imagine a new and different world.
January:29:2011 - 23:57
Great write-up. There is little evidence to support the Muslim Brotherhood or any other radical group coming to power. There is proof that this has been orchestrated by liberal minded reformers.
Your statement of, “There is some truth in the saying about familiar devils being preferable to new, but strange ones.”
That may be true for policy makers in Washington (sure it makes their jobs a whole lot easier) but the same cannot be said of the simple man on the street.
Totally ON
when you said, “If he no longer holds the confidence of his citizens that he can rule justly, then he needs to go.”
January:30:2011 - 00:38
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Sara Al-Bassam, jfb1138. jfb1138 said: "Watching Egypt | Crossroads Arabia" ( http://bit.ly/gbEaG7 ) [...]
January:30:2011 - 08:42
[...] (James Joyner): John Burgess has an extensive discussion of this at his place. Two snippets: Saudi Arabia—and Saudis in [...]
January:30:2011 - 09:54
He can slam dump all he wants…sadly it won’t change anything.
It is like when your mamma keeps telling you to turn down your ipod because it’s WAY too LOUD and you just keep blasting it saying, “I don’t care if I go deaf”!
January:30:2011 - 10:12
So far mostly chaos in Egypt. The looting and wide spread riots, armed groups, vigilantes and disruption of transport and communications means that food will soon become a problem. Most people seem to be at home, waiting. Waiting.
The Atlantic has a partial translation of a “How to protest” pamphlet being circulated. It shows organization but somewhat off target because no police to protest against.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/01/egyptian-activists-action-plan-translated/70388/
Also no sign of Islamic content in revolt, yet. Ten cents says the old dictator will leave Egypt in the next 24 hours.
January:30:2011 - 10:19
Listen Husni needs to leave Egypt A.S.A.P. the longer he stays the worse it is going to get. Damage is irreptable. Pride is at stake now. Pride means a lot to Arabs!
Even if people were to quiet down, it would only be for a while.
I think that will happen too…maybe 48 hours
January:30:2011 - 10:30
I heard from an Egyptian friend- who is not currently in Egypt that it was Mubarak who had the prisoners released so that people would want/need the police again and to distract from the situation. Has anyone heard anything like that?
January:30:2011 - 10:35
No, I haven’t come across that one. Frankly, it sounds like a little too much ‘look behind the curtain’ thinking to me. A more likely chain of events is that the police and guards simply walked away out of fear that they’d be targeted by mobs. They left the doors open when they departed.
January:30:2011 - 10:40
Hi Sandy, they (Mubarek et al.) are cooking up something but really the common cliche rings all too true— “too little and too late”…Key word “too late”! People eyes are wide OPEN
I would not be surprised if HE did something like that just to gather Western sympathizers… That plan only works on the thick brained…ones who have lost touch…
January:30:2011 - 11:05
Here is the thing…remember I said how Saudi royals establish relations with people well those relations transend borders with other Arab countries. I could see some relative of Husni married to a relative of the King pleading “Oh please Uncle! Don’t let those peasants disgrace my father.”
Egyptians must have felt compelled to protest otherwise you wouldn’t see them in the streets the way they were and on top of that they (Husni et al.) think they will be squashed down with for the sake of stability. There comes a time (I feel like spiderman now as I am saying this) hmm hmm clearing throught there comes a time in a man’s life when stability is no longer the strongest desire. Miserable stability that is…Perhaps mediocre stability like Saudi o.k. but Miserable Stability like in Egypt No Thank You!
IF I had a magic wand I would advice Husni with the following words “Step down with humility…apologize for your transgressions wish Egypt well and maybe you will be welcome for vacations.” To the Saudi King I say, “What happened to the soft hearted man I knew. Whoever is feeding your garbage intelligence open your bright mind. People are suffering. Feel for them feel with them. Give them some free rice, chicken, and sugar.”
January:30:2011 - 11:42
Been watching CNN. The TV “round-tables” with “experts” are worthless. Give me a reporter in the streets talking to real people and showing videos of events, anytime.
One thing mentioned in reports are some signs condemning the US. They are probably referring to Bush!
Sparky, that statement about “Miserable stability” and “mediocre stability” was great. How inspired and how true.
January:30:2011 - 11:46
Our society is quite different than that of Egypt.
We are in need of reform.
However, we are not in need of chaotic reform.
The reform obtained in Egypt will not fit our society.
January:30:2011 - 11:52
Thanks Jay…yes truly inspired and real. Lived it!
Oh my I have finally found oh oh boy oh boy I NEVER thought i would ::: Disclaimer::: my mental state is slowing detoriorating
BUT
Oh my oh boy I have FINALLY FOUND a Saudi THUG!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yliTMkESCOs&feature=related
I want to write lyrics about this whole ordeal “No chaotic reform…justa justa justa busta give me some bread and don’t mess with my head!”
January:30:2011 - 17:00
EXITING.
But what Egypt needs now is a regime change and a accelerated economic development and hope, I don’t think the Brotherhood ( which itself as far as I know is split between different fractions ) if it should gain power would try to enforce strictly Islamist politics;A such policy is extremely resource demanding.
And don’t forget that tourism is one of the most important economic sectors
And Kactuz, I don’t think the Brotherhood would gain power i Morocco, the last election showed clearly, that ordinary people and voters think they need more social control.
January:30:2011 - 17:09
NeilsC, I am a pessimist by nature. Always hoping for the worst and happy to be wrong. Time will tell.
Still, it is an intersting time and I am happy for the Egyptian people. I have been in these rallys / revolutions and they are exhilarating – but the problems come later.
January:30:2011 - 17:41
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110130/ap_on_re_us/ml_anatomy_of_anger
January:30:2011 - 18:56
Good piece. Thanks.
January:30:2011 - 21:36
The emphasis on jobs in Lola’s linked piece is most interesting. I’ll add that on the Pakistani forum I frequent one madrassa graduate explained that he had no desire to go out and commit mayhem (i.e., becoming a suicide bomber) but his classmates without jobs after graduation could be persuaded to do so. An interesting contrast to the poor ultra-Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Israel and Brooklyn where folk may be unemployed but the police spend next to nothing on preventative policing – none is necessary. Both Israel and the U.S. are democratic and fairly transparent; Most Arabs and Pakistanis consider their leadership to be corrupt elites. Perhaps religious folk tend to feel injustice most keenly. After all, it was the Pilgrims who settled in Plymouth.
Mubarak need not flee. There is still time for him to come to an orderly arrangement, preferably through mediation, with the democratic forces: El-Baradei continues to hold out the fig leaf of dignity.
January:30:2011 - 23:03
I agree. There is a sequence of steps Mubarak could take that would keep him in office–and in Egypt–if he’s smart enough to find them and follow them. I’m not sure he is smart enough, though. Otherwise, why would he find himself in this mess. ‘Bad counselors’ only goes so far to explain away malfeasance. I don’t know what all the right steps are, but they would include firing most senior government officials, not just the ministers. They would involve finding some way of bringing the MB into government, at some level. They would also require dropping the restraints imposed on media, including Al-Jazeera and the Internet.
These things would have to be done within no more than two days, I think. I’m not sure he’s up to it.
January:31:2011 - 04:06
I’m not sure bringing the MB into government is either necessary or desirable. Wasn’t the key mistake of the Iranian democrats to accept a power-sharing arrangement with the mullahs? Then once the excitement on the street was over, the mullahs, being the ones still willing and able to employ force, were able to pick off the democrats at their leisure, leaving themselves as the sole “legitimate” authority.
No, Mubarak can instead team up with democratic forces and accept a subservient, junior, caretaker relationship until new, fair, elections can be held.
January:31:2011 - 06:09
I think Mubarak’s ship has sailed and it is too late for him to do anything the Egyptians would accept. No matter what he tries to do now he has used all his credibility and I think he will have to go. It would be nice if he doesn’t try to drag the country down with him.
January:31:2011 - 08:49
Consider the lessons of the Russian revolution, if you will.
January:31:2011 - 08:49
Are you one of those people who don’t like democracy? (Joking)
The fact is, the MB is more popular than most other political parties. To exclude them entirely would be to tell people–once again–that they don’t know what’s good for them, that the elites know better. Is that really the case? Or is there some way that the MB, which has moderated its stance over the past decade, might play some legitimate role?
January:31:2011 - 10:41
See this video from January 25th: http://www.nowlebanon.com/BlogDetails.aspx?TID=1093&FID=6
0:45: “We will not be silenced, whether you’re a Christian, whether you’re a Muslim, whether you’re an atheist, you gotta demand your goddamn rights…”
January:31:2011 - 13:44
I’m watching Egypt. I am just a normal person. I am just a person who has a heart that beats. I am just a person who has seen the anger, the joy and the hope. I’m watching Egypt. I do not deny the pain…the pain the people felt…the pain that people could no longer carry…I’m watching Egypt?…Are you? Can you you see Egypt? I can!
To King Abdullah “Can you see Egypt?”
Release the prisoners who called for a Constitutional Monarchy before it’s too LATE!
January:31:2011 - 13:55
oNE OF MY cOMMENts has been cybersnapped!
January:31:2011 - 14:02
Oh Cyber King thank you for snatching or cybersnapping that comment let us keep it between us. HahahahahaHAAHAHAH
January:31:2011 - 15:59
I read that Mubarak was elected to a 6 year term in 2005. I realize “rule of law” doesn’t ring much of a bell in the Middle East, but doesn’t Egypt have a constitution? And how is MB being funded? Strictly home-grown? It seems the demonstrations here in the U.S. are coordinated with preprinted signs of similar design in all the cities and are covered by major networks, which would argue an experienced PR department.
January:31:2011 - 16:05
King Abdullah’s infiltrators?
http://theweek.com/article/index/211610/egypts-protests-whos-driving-the-revolution
January:31:2011 - 17:14
‘Soccer fans’! I just knew it!!
January:31:2011 - 19:11
Soccer fans! Ah’m skeered. When the Chicago Bears win, the fans tear up the city, overturn cars…well, it’s better just not to be out on that night.
February:01:2011 - 08:03
http://en.news.maktoob.com/20090000554644/Who_are_potential_players_in_Egyptian_reform_/Article.htm
February:01:2011 - 14:29
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=258405
February:01:2011 - 15:10
I take what I read at WND with about two more mountains of salt than what I read on Debka Files. I don’t think the world produces enough lithium to handle the issues at those two sites.
February:01:2011 - 16:22
Now tell me what you really think!
February:01:2011 - 18:27
No you don’t… I promise.
February:02:2011 - 11:03
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41383377/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa
Clashes…people come in on camels and horses WTF how many days after the FACT?
People suffered…Mubarek…does not give a flying Duck! Obviously he wants to stay until September like that will make a difference.!..! He keeps digging a deeper grave for himself and OTHERS and Others and others and others and others and others…
Bravo!
February:02:2011 - 12:04
Niggas before I sign off my aliens want me to say:
“Sandy you are right it seems Mubarek wants to take down the rest of Egypt of with him. I say Fuck dat shit. Take some strong action…fufill a niggas last wish. Peace Out”
Oh and back to the normal self again. I said show me the face of Mubarek. The 6 of swords came up. Someone is going on a boat trip. Hopefully…I mean if they are a lucky duck.
February:02:2011 - 14:24
Furthermore this is Hope speaking now: Any King, Prince or PResident who supports what happened to the those peaceful protesters early this morning need to GO DOWN AS WELL!
February:02:2011 - 14:29
Lola I no longer take bullet for King Abdullah
Hope takes bullet for Hope!
Peace OUT!
February:02:2011 - 14:44
It’s turned bloody, and the crowd is starting to use the Metro to jail Mubarak supporters. That’s usually an important turning point in a revolt, because it demonstrates a sense of justice separate from that of the ruling regime and a commitment to defending the prison. So the protesters likely won’t disperse until Mubarak reaches an accommodation with them, his regime falls, or the people themselves have been killed.
February:02:2011 - 14:52
Great Solomon2 because Mubarak’s supporters are nothing more than thugs. Some were cited as putting blades on the ends of sticks!
IS that what Mubarak wanted? To go out with a fight. Great he got it. He is fighting the women and children as well. What a beautiful person King Abdullah supported and he slammed the common man out on the street. I hope Morocco goes down next and the whole “I love the King Facebook Campaign” will completely backfire. Mark my words. The longer this goes on I tell you the worse shit is going to get.
February:02:2011 - 15:10
It may not go on much longer, Sparky. Suppose the crowd develops a few islands of leadership here and there, powerful enough to promise protection to Mubarak’s rent-a-crowd and plain-clothes police gang if they switch sides. Then the power of the regime falls in that location and revolt becomes a revolution that spreads with the influence of the crowd. Only tank troops could stop it, but who says any would be willing to defend the regime?
February:02:2011 - 15:18
A-hole Mubarak IF he REALLY Cared for Egypt AND the People, should have stepped down days ago AND let me say in response to Mubaraks words “God will judge us…” Let me say to him “Judgement has BEGUN!”
Isn’t that sentence from the movie Terminator HAHAHA
February:02:2011 - 15:35
Either Mubarak is stupid or he his cronies are hiding the truth from him. 4-5 days ago I said he would be out in 48 hours, but that was because I thought he had an once of common sense, or could read the writing on the wall.
So he wants to stay for 8 more months and THEN step down…. Yeah, right. Mubarak only cares for himself, obviously. This thing is getting uglier by the day.
February:02:2011 - 15:51
The U.S. has sent former U.S. Ambassador Wisni (Sp.?) to Husni hopefully to say “You are terminated Fucker!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXUUtLv4sCg&feature=related
February:02:2011 - 16:09
Unlike when the Philippines dumped Marcos, there is no leader for the crowd to latch onto. These two million folks, jammed into a square, they are being compelled to develop their own leadership, fast. Who will be the next Lech Walesa?
February:02:2011 - 16:16
Oops former U.S. Ambassador name is named Kurtzer not Wisni (don’t where that came from) and I think he is going there to hypnotize Mubarak after listening to his voice! I’m sure he has training in that!
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/31/whats-in-mubaraks-mind-former-u-s-ambassador-to-egypt-may-know/
However, he said that on the 31st not since the ugly came out.
February:02:2011 - 16:33
Live video:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2011/02/live-footage-from-egypt.html
You can see both sides throwing Molotov cocktails.
February:02:2011 - 17:11
When I said he was cooking something up seems, like he was cooking Molotov cocktails.
I’m just disgusted with the world today!
February:02:2011 - 17:13
No, Frank Wisner is also a former ambassador to Egypt. So was Kurtzer, but then there’s a new one every three or four years, on average.
February:02:2011 - 23:24
…watching TV. This has to the strangest revolt / revolution I have ever seen. Pro and Anti-regime groups throwing stones and fighting around tanks and the soldiers doing nothing.
February:02:2011 - 23:51
No, I understand it, even if I don’t particularly like it.
The Army does not want to be seen as becoming political: it doesn’t want to run the country, though I’m sure it would like some say. Were it to pick a side, any side, the result would be to decrease its influence.
However, if it stands by while people are being slaughtered–something not yet happening–then its influence would be even more deprecated. It’s walking a thin line.
February:03:2011 - 14:45
The army has taken sides, they make sure the anti-mubarak protesters have no weapons, while they let the Mubarak thugs in with all their weapons.
And then they stand by doing nothing.
Until they send in these disguised police and paid thugs to kill and injure the anti-Mubarak protesters the protests were peaceful.
Also somebody must have put up a few snipers as every now and then somebody gets shot. In the head. Sniperstyle. In intervals you know, for the best psychological effect.
11 shot by now as far as I know.