London’s The Times carries a piece I consider wildly speculative. It alleges that the Saudi government would ‘turn a blind eye’ to Israeli jets flying through Saudi airspace en route to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.
I think the article is a combination of wishful thinking and projection, a matter of ‘this is what I would do, were I the Saudis.’ (To clarify: the I here continues with his own agenda, not necessarily or even likely what the Saudi agenda might be.) We can expect prompt denial from Saudi authorities any time now. While Saudi Arabia is certainly concerned about Iranian expansion and nuclear aspirations, it is also aware that its own oil facilities are but a three-minute flight of bombers and jets from Iran.
Besides, it would be much easier to cross Iraqi airspace as Iraq has little in the way of effective monitoring of its airspace or response to any incursion.
Saudis give nod to Israeli raid on Iran
Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv and Sarah BaxterThe head of Mossad, Israel’s overseas intelligence service, has assured Benjamin Netanyahu, its prime minister, that Saudi Arabia would turn a blind eye to Israeli jets flying over the kingdom during any future raid on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Earlier this year Meir Dagan, Mossad’s director since 2002, held secret talks with Saudi officials to discuss the possibility.
The Israeli press has already carried unconfirmed reports that high-ranking officials, including Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister, held meetings with Saudi colleagues. The reports were denied by Saudi officials.
“The Saudis have tacitly agreed to the Israeli air force flying through their airspace on a mission which is supposed to be in the common interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia,” a diplomatic source said last week.
Although the countries have no formal diplomatic relations, an Israeli defence source confirmed that Mossad maintained “working relations” with the Saudis.
John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the United Nations who recently visited the Gulf, said it was “entirely logical” for the Israelis to use Saudi airspace.
…
UPDATE: Israel formally denies the report. The Israeli daily Haaretz carries this story:
Israel denies Saudis gave IDF airspace clearance for Iran strike
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July:05:2009 - 14:54
Israeli disinformation, perhaps?
If true, this highly dangerous agreement would give Iran a justification for attacking Saudi Arabia in self-defense. Given the current tension in Iran and the apparent victory of the militant war generation faction, this would seem to be the last thing the Saudis would want out in the open.
Even if it is just a rumor (or, more likely, disinformation), it is almost certain to further intensify regional tensions. Iranian hardliners will interpret it as further evidence that they are surrounded and threatened with an existential threat. This in turn may lead them, heady with their recent victory over domestic opponents, both to crack down on dissent at home and to engage in adventures abroad. Such a domestic crackdown would further exacerbate internal discord, probably making the hardliners feel even more isolated and threatened. Regionally, it could contribute to any number of tension-raising acts, from an intensified arms race to actual steps to “teach the Saudis a lesson.”
That would endanger the whole Mideast and benefit no one…except Israeli hardliners. Those Israelis looking for an excuse to attack Iran would get closer to their goal. Those who want to cement ties with regional Arab dictatorships would probably move closer to their goal as well. And if an incident does occur, all Israel’s shortsighted friends in Congress will rush to pour even more weapons into their arms.
July:05:2009 - 15:34
The reasons you cite are exactly why I believe this to be a bit of self-serving nonsense. There are those who may believe it, with varying degrees of danger. There are also those who would like to believe it, no less dangerously.