I’m not sure exactly what the International Criminal Court expected as the result of its issuing a warrant for Sudanese President Beshir’s arrest. To paraphrase Soviet tyrant Josef Stalin, ‘How many divisions does the ICC command?’ It’s one thing to declare a judgment; it’s quite another to enforce it. Lacking an army, I’m left wondering how the ICC intends to effect Al-Beshir’s arrest.

There’s not much question that Al-Beshir is a thug directing the activities of a thuggish army and paramilitary. He, as groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, seeks to put some distance between the actions of the Sudanese state and ‘uncontrollable’ elements who ravage Darfur. Unfortunately for him, there’s too much evidence of the Sudanese army’s supporting the janjaweed in their pillage, rape, and destruction of southwestern Sudan. Various international bodies have tried to exert pressure on him and his government. Those bodies have had some limited success in protecting the people of Darfur and in providing emergency shelter and food. That, however, is coming to a halt as one consequence of the ICC’s action, with Sudan now expelling 13 aid agencies. Arab News editorializes that the ICC’s move is counterproductive:

‘Warrant will worsen Darfur situation’

JEDDAH: The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for President Omar Bashir is a blow to the country’s stability and undermines ongoing peace efforts in Darfur, Sudan’s Consul General Mahmoud Fadl Abdul Rasul said at a press conference in Jeddah yesterday.

“The court order gives a wrong signal to armed groups in the region and would stall ongoing peace efforts in Darfur,” Abdul Rasul said.

The consul general also expressed fear that the court’s move would worsen the situation in Darfur in other ways.

Although he has not received any official report from Sudan, the consul general did not think the court’s decision would restrict Bashir’s free movement in the Arab and African countries.

“Sudan has been targeted because of its rich natural resources,” the Sudanese envoy said. Describing the ICC’s move as a violation of Sudan’s sovereignty, the diplomat said, “The ICC order is an attempt to destabilize the country.”
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The Washington Post is not impressed by the warrant, either:

Hold the Handcuffs

Even the UN’s President of the General Assembly is not unanimous in its support of the warrant, reports Saudi Gazette:

Al-Beshir warrant absurd – UN official

GENEVA – UN General Assembly President Miguel d’Escoto Brockmann Thursday said he regretted that a warrant had been issued to arrest Sudan’s president, saying the move was absurd and politically-motivated.

“I am sorry about this decision of the ICC (International Criminal Court) and I think it’s more a decision motivated by political considerations than really for the sake of advancing the cause of justice in the world,” said the Nicaraguan diplomat, a former foreign minister.

Brockmann said the prosecution against President Omar Al-Beshir should have been delayed, as called for by the African Union and the Arab League, in order to allow peace talks to make progress.
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I think part of the problem is that no one not actually in the Sudanese government knows quite what’s going on. The Sudanese government, for that matter, might not know itself. The ambiguity of the situation leaves many answers—and conspiracy theories—available to grasp. Is the conflict driven by oil? Is it a matter of Muslims fighting non-Muslims? Or perhaps non-Muslims fighting Muslims? Is it an Israeli or American or Chinese plot? Is it another theater for an ongoing war between Islam and the West? Is it simply a matter of race, with the blackness of skin the factor that decides who lives or dies, or perhaps it’s ‘Arabism’ run amok?

Some of these factors likely play some role in what is being called a ‘genocide’ in Darfur. All of these factors need to be addressed to resolve the conflict. I’m not at all convinced that issuing an arrest warrant, with no way to effect it, is a useful step. The warrant has led to protests in the streets of Khartoum, unsurprisingly. It has also given governments, as Saudi Arabia’s, a convenient excuse to not do anything useful to stop the killing.

Amir Tehiri has a good column on the issue in today’s Asharq Alawsat:

Darfur and the Hunt for General Al-Bashir