As I write this on Monday, Tropical Storm Fay is moving north in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some of today’s models of the storm (which are very disparate), show it making landfall in Sarasota, Florida, where I live. The storm’s intensity is not very clear: by the time it gets here, it could be just a tropical storm or it could be a Category-1 hurricane. A few models suggest it could become a Category-3 hurricane. The storm’s uncertainties, oddly enough, have pushed up the price of oil!

Whatever intensity of the storm, it means that there will be a lot of rain and heavier-than-normal winds. I’m not particularly concerned about damage to me or my place of residence. What is likely, however, is that the electric systems will go down. During the hurricanes of 2004, power was down for three days following hurricanes that passed 60 miles to the south, east, and north.

I’m prepared to deal with the inconveniences of that—no air conditioning in 90° F (32°C) temperatures with 90% humidity (just like Jeddah!), no refrigerator, no electric stove, no cable TV, no phones. What I cannot do is access the Internet with no electricity, thus, no blogging.

So, be advised that Crossroads Arabia may become inert for a few days if the storm does its worst. I’ll try to ‘pre-post’ some materials today so that you’ll have new pieces to read, but my last-minute preparations today might hinder that. [UPDATE: The most recent models suggest that the storm might hit as early as tonight.]

If Crossroads Arabia goes dark, it will only be for a matter of days. I’ll be back ASAP.

UPDATE: Monday, 17:30 The latest predictions are that the storm will not reach hurricane proportions and that it will hit land about 60 miles (100 km) to the south. Not great news for the people down there, of course, but not too bad for me.

This part of Florida has most of its service lines—electricity and phone—run on poles. The water table is too high to bury them as in many cities of the world. That leaves them liable to damage from falling branches and blowing debris, as well as water being blow at high speed. Even though the storm may not hit here directly, it is still likely to take down electrical services. So, while I might escape the worst of the storm, I’ll probably be without power for some period of time—extent still to be determined.

Here’s a link to my local TV station, ABC-affiliate WWSB. The site has lots of weather maps, if you’re interested in that sort of thing, including live radar and (during daylight hours) satellite photos. For the most authoritative news about the storm, the National Hurricane Center can’t be beaten. Its site, however, can be overloaded… I ran into some difficulties accessing the page earlier today. It seems that immediately following updated reports, they get a little more traffic than they can bear.

Here, though, is a nifty weather radar map which should update regularly. It shows Sarasota receiving scattered rain right now, which is also what I see from my window.

UPDATE: Tuesday, 08:30 Well, it looks as though Sarasota has dodged a bullet again. The most recent predictions show the storm going either past us to the East or hooking around us. None show it coming to pay a visit. Four-eight inches of rain and breezes of up to 24mph are the most we can expect. The electric company should be able to deal with that!