This post is part of a “Blog Symposium” being led by Dave Schuler, of The Glittering Eye blog. Also taking part are Michael Cook, the Cleveland Dodge professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University; James Hamilton, a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego; Rasheed Abou Al-Samh, a Saudi-American journalist based in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, who also blogs at Rasheed’s World; and Shivaji Sondhi, a professor of physics at Princeton University. We’re offering our own views on the situation in Iraq and inviting comment, criticism, correction.

See Part I here

You Can’t Tell the Players without a Score Card Part II
Actually, you can’t tell the game…

The Gulf States

KUWAIT: It’s pretty clear that Kuwait has not deep love for Iraq following the 1990 invasion. Kuwait doesn’t particularly like Iran either, though. Iranian moves toward the islands of Bubiyan and Warba during the Iran-Iraq War (Iraq has also asserted claims toward the islands), as well as Iranian targeting of Kuwaiti tankers during that war. (This led to the reflagging of Kuwaiti tankers under the US, British and Soviet flags.)

Kuwait’s population is a mix of Sunni and Shi’i. While there is no official census noting religious affiliation, estimates put the Shi’a population at somewhere between 10% and 25%. The Shi’a population is both Arab and Persian. Due in large part to the Iraqi invasion, Kuwait has one of the strongest senses of national identity in the Gulf.

Forward headquarters of the US Third Army are in Kuwait.

BAHRAIN: This tiny country—300 square miles in area—is anomalous in the Gulf for several reasons. The majority of the population, 60%-75% depending on whose estimates you follow—is Shi’a, though the governmental leadership is Sunni. It is also unique in that it is formally a constitutional monarchy. The Shi’ites are both ‘Usuli and Akhbari. Nearly everyone in the country has relations elsewhere in the Gulf, from Iran and Iraq, to the Emirates and Saudi Arabia. There are also strong links, both familial and trading, to South Asia. Bahrain is also the oil state to be first running out of oil, though it has extensive undersea natural gas fields.

Bahrain is very concerned about Iran. The Iranian government, following the 1979 revolution, has made strong claims to ownership of the island and, in 1981, was actively fomenting revolution against the government.

U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and US Marine Corps Central Command (MARCENT) are headquartered in Bahrain.

QATAR: Nearly as traditionalist in culture as Saudi Arabia and also following the so-called ‘Wahhabi’ strain of Islam, Qatar has seen rapid political development over the past ten years. It has historic conflicts with Bahrain, some resolved only a few years ago, over ownership of a small group of island, but more importantly over undersea gas fields. Qatar also has quarrels with Saudi Arabia, often taking political positions seemingly intended to slight the Saudis.

As chief source of funding for Al Jazeera TV, Qatar plays a central role in framing media discourse about events in the Middle East.

It has generally good relations with Iran, something made easier through the fact that only 10% of Qataris profess Shi’ism.

Qatar is host to the forward headquarters of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the US Air Force Central Command (AFCENT) at Al Udeid Air Base outside the capital.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Comprised of the Emirates of Abu Dhabi, Ajmān, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras al-Khaimah, Sharjah, and Umm al-Quwain, the county held its first elections earlier this week. The country is noted for its free trade, which is sometimes seen as ‘anything goes’. Only about 20% of the population is Emirati, with 50% of the population coming from South Asia. It has excellent commercial relations with Iran, but a long-standing dispute about the ownership of Tunb and Abu Musa islands (which Iran occupies militarily) and for some reason, re-opened arguments about its border with Saudi Arabia earlier this year.

The UAE is strategically important in that it occupies the southern portion of the Straits of Hormuz, a vital channel for oil tankers servicing the entire Gulf.

The Emirates have extensive, global trade and business relationships. They were at the center of a dispute about the Dubai Ports World move to take over some management of US ports. The country is also cited as a problem when it comes to trafficking in drugs and people. Its free-wheeling business atmosphere is alleged to permit money transfers for nefarious purposes.

The US military is permitted to use both air bases (assumed to be for the basing of U2 aircraft) and naval dry dock facilities in the country.

OMAN: This country is anomalous in the region in that the majority of its population is neither Sunni nor Shi’a in its religious beliefs. Instead, most Omanis follow Ibadi Islam, seen as a branch of Kharajitism, which dates back to the 8th C.

During the Iran-Iraq War (which the Gulf Arabs term the ‘First Gulf War’), Oman remained neutral, siding with neither side. It continues to have strong political and commercial relations with Iran, but also with the US and other Gulf States.

The US appears to nave no permanent military facilities in Oman, but they often conduct joint military exercises. Oman provided some basing support during US military operations against Afghanistan and Iraq.