UPDATE: You might be interested in reading the full transcript of the press briefing given by Secretary of State Rice and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley following the meeting. It (slightly) addresses issues beyond the price of oil, including ways in which the Saudis can be helpful in Iraq, Israel-Palestine, and extremism.
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Media reporting on the Crawford, TX meeting between President Bush and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah continues. Most of the reporting seems to take a negative spin when it comes to the issue of oil. Given that the Saudis are pumping at near-capacity and that the problems seem to lie more in the refining and demand sectors, this is a little surprising. Did anyone expect a quick fix? Even if an extra supply of crude oil appeared magically overnight, it would still take weeks for that crude to make its way to US refineries. And then what?
At present, US refineriese are operating at full bore, producing an array of state-specific blends of gasoline. Some refineries are suffering short-term reductions and stoppages due to accidents, refitting, and as we saw during last year’s hurricane season, even the weather.
At present, Saudi Arabia provides something between 16%-18% of US oil imports. Increased production by the Saudis, to whatever limit is possible, will not have a direct effect on US gas prices. If it can increase production, as the Saudi government plans to do over the next few years, it could have an effect on global supply. But oil is and always will be a finite resource. Eventually, it’s going to run out. The President makes note of that in his current energy bill through his continued support of hydrogen fuels.
Unlike in 1973 when the Saudis used the “oil weapon” to punish the US for its military resupply of Israel during that year’s war with the Arab states, the Saudis are now extremely dependent on the global economy’s remaining stable. The Saudis certainly depend on oil production–and oil prices–to fuel their own economy. But hundreds of billions of Saudi money–mostly in dollars–is invested around the world. The Saudis also count on that money. A global economic crisis, for whatever reason, would have disasterous effects on the Saudi economy as much as it would on the US economy. The Saudis have no interest in damaging their own pocketbook by restricting oil production.
With that, here are some of the lead stories about the meeting…
Bush and Saudi Prince Discuss High Oil Prices in Ranch Meeting
Richard W. Stevenson– The New York TimesCRAWFORD, Tex., April 25 – President Bush discussed the surge in oil prices with Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on Monday, but focused on a plan by the Saudis to increase their oil-pumping capacity over the next decade rather than on any short-term efforts to bring prices down…
Officials said there was no explicit request by Mr. Bush for short-term steps to bring down rising oil and gasoline prices, which are threatening to take a toll on the economy in the United States and are already pulling down the president’s approval ratings. They said that Mr. Bush and other officials had already signaled to the Saudis that they wanted a commitment to pump more oil in the short run, and that last week the Saudi oil minister had publicly expressed a willingness to do so.
The officials said the Saudis used the meeting to detail for Mr. Bush the steps they intended to take to cushion the global market from future increases in demand from fast-growing economies like China and India, and from the United States and other industrial nations…
Saudi Arabia’s plans to increase production capacity are politically and geologically sensitive. In the Middle East, the Saudis have been criticized for increasing production to help the United States; the most extreme of those critics has been Osama bin Laden.
Some experts, including past and present officials of Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, have said the plan may be too optimistic because of geological complexities in the oil fields and challenges in finding enough technology and labor.
Bush, Saudi Fail to Reach Deal to Lower Gas Prices: Abdullah Relays Country’s Plan to Boost Capacity
Michael A. Fletcher The Washington PostCRAWFORD, Tex., April 25 — President Bush and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah emerged from their meeting here Monday with no agreement that would lower gasoline prices in the near term, although Saudi Arabia reiterated plans to increase oil production capacity in coming years in an effort to meeting fast-growing world demand.
Bush has pressed the Saudis in recent weeks to help lower gasoline prices soon by increasing crude oil production, but Abdullah and his delegation responded here by explaining their long-term strategy to invest $50 billion over five years in a plan that would eventually increase the kingdom’s oil production capacity by close to 50 percent.
The price hikes, said Adel al-Jubeir, foreign affairs adviser to Abdullah, are a result of a confluence of factors, including increased demand, limited refinery capacity, a lack of spare production capacity and the fear permeating the market because of the ongoing violence in Iraq.
“There is no shortage of crude oil,” he said. “It would not make a difference if we put an extra 1.5 [million] to 2 million barrels of oil on the market.”
Some oil policy experts agreed there is relatively little Saudi Arabia can do in the short run to lower oil prices. The country is producing about 9.5 million barrels of oil a day — close to its nearly 11 million-barrel capacity…
“They are scared to death about the effect of long-term high prices,” said David E. Long, a specialist on the Saudis and a former diplomat, explaining that such prices increase incentives for investment in alternative forms of energy, ultimately curbing demand for crude oil.
Saudi gives Bush no assurance on short-term oil
Joseph Curl The Washington TimesCRAWFORD, Texas — President Bush yesterday pressed Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah to increase the flow of crude oil from his nation’s vast reserves, but failed during their meeting to win any short-term relief for Americans pummeled by sky-high gasoline prices.
Instead, Bush administration officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley, touted long-range plans already offered by the Saudis to increase capacity and production by several million barrels per day by the end of the decade…
Mr. Bush and other administration officials said that as part of a long-term solution, the Senate must vote quickly on a comprehensive energy strategy, approved by the House, that includes tapping U.S. oil reserves in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).
“One thing is for certain: I need to sign an energy bill. I appreciate the House passing the energy bill. And now it’s time for the Senate to pass the energy bill,” Mr. Bush said.
The House twice passed an energy bill during Mr. Bush’s first term, but both times Senate Democrats blocked the legislation by filibuster, a move they appear ready to repeat.
This piece on how the oil industry is viewing the meeting is pretty illuminating:
Oil Slips to $54 After Saudi Assurance
ReutersLONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices eased for a second day on Tuesday as traders booked profits from a week-long rise after Saudi Arabia said it could quickly tap spare oil production capacity if necessary.
U.S. light crude
last traded down 31 cents to $54.26 a barrel, extending Monday’s 82-cent loss in New York. London Brent crude was down 9 cents to $54.31. Prices were dampened by renewed signs of rising OPEC supply and comments from the world’s leading exporter Saudi Arabia that it was ready to tap spare capacity if buyers needed more oil.
OPEC oil producers are pumping 30.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, up 700,000 bpd from March, leading tanker tracking consultancy Petrologistics said on Tuesday.
Petrologistics’ preliminary estimate for the month would put OPEC April supply above the 25-year output high hit last September and October. During those months, supply rose to 30.15 million bpd, according to Reuters surveys.
Adel al-Jubeir, foreign affairs adviser to Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah, said after a meeting between President Bush and Abdullah in Texas that world oil supplies were adequate, but the kingdom was willing to provide as much crude oil as buyers wanted.
The kingdom is producing slightly over 9.5 million bpd, with between 1.3 million and 1.4 million bpd in spare production capacity that could quickly be tapped, Jubeir said.
Saudi Arabia is expected to provide most of a 500,000-bpd supply increase in OPEC supplies next month, the cartel’s President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, said last week.
“The Saudi comment has had an affect. Also, the market is struggling to push much higher without any substantial change in supply, shock news or increasing demand,” said Daniel Hynes, a commodities analyst at ANZ Bank in Melbourne.
While many analysts see sufficient supplies of crude oil and products in the short term they remain wary about constraints on global refining capacity and a possible shortage of products later in the year.
A spate of technical glitches in Louisiana, Texas and Kansas has raised fears that refineries may struggle to meet an expected rise in gasoline demand this summer.
Additional stories–essentially similar in coverage–can be found at The Financial Times and ABC business news.
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April:29:2005 - 19:29
Interesting posts on the meeting. Most of the press has to be expected to have a negative take, given that the story involves President Bush. That includes all the silly coverage and anchor-man jokes about them holding hands.
On a more serious note, it’s good to see positive responses from the Saudis. But the point that we have to increase refining capacity, and soon, is very valid. Watch as Democrats do everything they can to frustrate proposals to build new refineries, all the while beating Bush up over high prices.
April:29:2005 - 21:41
Refineries, alternative fuels, nuclear power… they’re all going to be needed, soon. Denying that the world runs on energy is worse than ostrich-think. It endangers the entire world.
April:30:2005 - 12:53
yeah, the oil issue is really a demand side issue. Too much demand coming on. More and more people in the world. More and More industrialized, but not more and more oil.
There are alternatives, they are just more expensive.