Seeking Saudi Safehaven
By Amir Taheri

WHEN the Taliban fell, two visions emerged within the Islamist terror movement.

One vision, identified with Osama bin Laden, wants the movement to continue targeting the West, especially the United States. The other, advocated by Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s No. 2, wants the “holy war” concentrated in Muslim countries, especially Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

The events of the past year or so show that the al-Zawahiri vision is in the ascendancy. Outside the bomb attack in Madrid just over a year ago, the movement has scored no successes in the West, while at least 130 of its operatives have been picked up in half a dozen European countries and the United States.

To be sure, the Madrid attack briefly boosted bin Laden’s prestige by triggering a victory for the (anti-Iraq War) Socialists. And the terror underworld has recently been abuzz with rumors of a coming spectacular attack in Britain, to achieve another change of government in a major Western democracy.

Nevertheless, it is clear that majority opinion within the terror movement favors the al-Zawahiri strategy — which aims to seize control of at least one Muslim country to provide the safe haven that the Islamists enjoyed in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. This is why the past two years have witnessed a dramatic rise in the number of attacks in the four targeted countries.

But even there, things are not going well for the movement.

In Pakistan, two attempts at killing President Pervez Musharraf have failed, and hundreds of terrorists have been killed or captured. In Afghanistan, the movement and the remnants of the Taliban failed to stop the presidential election and has little chance of preventing next September’s parliamentary polls. New Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s plan is to bring the insurgency under control before the end of the year, when Iraqis are scheduled to elect a new parliament.

To win in Afghanistan and Iraq, the terror movement would have to defeat not only the local national forces but also the United States and its Coalition allies. To win in Pakistan, al-Zawahiri must crush the Pakistani army, one of the strongest in the world.

All this means that Saudi Arabia is increasingly seen by al-Zawahiri as the softest target for a terrorist take-over.

As always, Amir Taheri has a good, insightful piece on the threat to Saudi Arabia posed by Al-Qaeda. Even given the successes of the past week or so, Al-Qaeda is still looking to destablize the region in its quest to form a New Caliphate. Of all its targets, Saudi Arabia appears to be the most vulnerable.

This is a good piece, worth your time to read the whole thing.