There’s an interesting post over at the Professor Bainbridge weblog. In it, the Good Doctor comments on a review of the book America’s Secret War, by George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, a private, security intelligence company.
The book apparently posits that after Al-Qaeda and the Taleban were taken down in Afghanistan, the US government realized that it “had a Saudi problem.” Saudis, who represented the largest number of the 9/11 attackers, who had been implicated in attacks within the kingdom, and who were funding the export of a fundamentalist Islam, the review states, were too difficult a problem for the US to take on directly. So instead, the US went to war in Iraq.
I find this line of thought seriously flawed. First, the use of the term, “the Saudis”, is so broad as to be meaningless. In my dealings with Strafor analysts, I was always struck by the way they wanted to force information into a particular viewpoint: “The days of the House of Saud are numbered”. The lack of evidence to support that view, apparently, isn’t enough to stop it. Instead, at least according to the review, “the Saudis” are seen as the motivators behind “global jihad” as a tool of self-survival. That, I believe, is nonsense.
There is no such thing as “the Saudis”. The 17 million people who are counted as Saudis the country are not a homogeneous society. They vary in their political as well as religious beliefs. If the Saudi government is meant, then the differences of opinion within it are being ignored. If Friedman means only the Saud ruling family, then even there divergence of opinion and belief are neglected.
There is no question that Saudi Arabia played an important and active role in the jihad against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s. It did so with the full backing and support–and the requests for assistance from–the US government. The Saudi government, as the US government, largely ignored Afghanistan after the Soviets were driven out. It did continue its religious mission, however, spending millions on the construction of mosques and madrassas, providing religious texts, etc. When the Taleban quelled the chaos that reigned in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia did grant diplomatic recognition of the Taleban government–along with the Emirates and Pakistan, the only country to do so. The thinking was that a conservative, Islamic government–particularly a Sunni one on the borders of Shi’a Iran, could only be a boon. The excesses of the Taleban, however, took the bloom off the rose pretty quickly for most Saudis.
Whether the Saudi government funded, supported, supplied “global jihad” in the sense that Usama bin Laden uses the term, is an entirely different matter. I am certain that some Saudis–and most likely some Saudi government entities and members of the ruling family–did share UBL’s beliefs and goals. But I can’t prove that governmental support, nor can the USG to date, though it has been looking hard since 9/11 and before.
Rather, it seems as though individuals, rich and poor, who supported the idea of a renaissance of Islamic fundamentalism, were willing to offer funding. The task seemed pretty clear-cut: spread Islamic values; bring back those Muslims who had strayed into heterodox practices back into the orthodox fold. Some, I am sure, also believed that Islam was under military attack around the world, based on the examples of Palestine, Bosnia, and Chechnya, and that those attacks must be thwarted.
Numerous–but my no means all, nor the most important–Muslim clerics provided theological support for that goal. Vicious battles were being fought in on-line chat rooms and bulletin boards about the “true meaning of jihad” throughout the region. Saudis were the most active participants in this arguments, not all together surprising since they are the largest population in the region. There was no uniformity of opinion, however, and both sides fought to support their views.
Part of these opponents’ problem was a sense of disenfranchisement. Young people were facing a life materially poorer than that of their parents. Unemployment was well over 40% and the prospect for jobs was poor and growing worse. Islam seemed under seige.
But for religious and cultural reasons, as well as corporal ones, the House of Saud was largely unattackable. The Hanbali school of religious thought strongly supports the position and “sanctity” of the ruler. “Sixty years of tyranny are better than one night of civil strife” is a hadith that is frequently cited to support the rulers. Previous challenges to the religiously-backed authority of the Saud were limited in number and were strongly suppressed. (These include the 1930 suppression of the Ikhwan, the 1979 takeover of the Grand Mosque and Shi’a riots in the Eastern Province, the 1994 riots in Buraidah.)
Usama bin Laden, however, represented a familiar kind of threat, trying to outflank the government from the right, i.e., on religious grounds, as had the Ikhwan and the instigators of the Grand Mosque takeover . He built on a general resentment against the presence of American forces in the kingdom during and after the 1991 Gulf War and challenged the religious authority of the Al-Saud in their neglect for his imperative of the global conquest of Islam. The Al-Saud took his threat seriously enough to strip him of his Saudi citizenship and seize his local bank accounts. UBL has created a popular following, including some, I am sure, within the Al-Saud themselves. Since the Soviet retreat from Afghanistan, he has been the beneficiary of donations–as well as the diversion of charitable donations, some of which may certainly have come through government-sponsored organizations.
But this is a far cry from “Saudi Arabia” being a direct threat to the United States. During my time in the US Embassy from late Sept. 2001 through October 2003, no embassy officer, no visitor from the FBI, Treasury, or other intelligence agencies every expressed the view that “Saudi Arabia was the problem”. The extensive cooperation of the Saudi government in the conduct of Operation Iraqi Freedom certainly argues against the proposition that that war in Iraq was a proxy war.
[Thanks to Instapundit for pointing out the article.]
Tariq A. Al-Maeena, close_encounters@gawab.com
Islam is a faith embraced by over 1.2 billion people around the world, from Alaska to Adelaide. And it is flourishing by the numbers across all continents by people drawn to the reverence of total submission to the will of Almighty God.
In this context, a Saudi businessman recently financed the production of a movie that was released on Eid day in selected theaters across America. The movie “Muhammad, the Last Prophet†portrays the early days of Islam through the eyes of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) and was completed in cartoon caricatures. With a budget in excess of $12 million, this was one Saudi’s attempt to educate the Western public including the Muslim expatriates on the simplicity and oneness of this faith.
An excellent op-ed piece from Tariq Al-Maeena! Following the story of the animated film and the producer’s quest to get it onto DVD for distribution in the kingdom, this piece describes how the Saudi clerical establishment refused, without reason. They also refused to tell what changes would be necessary to make it acceptable. Al-Maeena goes on to discuss what this says about Saudi interpretations of religion and how it clashes with a global understanding of it. Read it!
Ten Iraqi political parties including two large Kurdish ones want the Jan. 30 elections postponed because of the security situation. Eight of them, which together represent the country’s Sunni community, have even threatened a boycott. The threat follows a similar call from the Sunni clerical Association of Muslim Scholars, the most influential Sunni group in Iraq, as a protest against the assault on Fallujah.
The parties’ concern is real. The assault on Fallujah has neither destroyed nor even cowed the militants, who are well aware that a legitimately elected government would rob them of any claim to being a “resistance†movement. They will bomb and kill to disrupt the elections to maintain instability — and it will be Iraqis who will be their principal victims.
Nonetheless, it would be a potentially catastrophic mistake to boycott the poll if it is seen as a “Sunni Boycott .
A good editorial in Arab News, warning the Iraqi Sunnis that they are the only ones who will lose if they decide to boycott the January elections. Very good piece, certainly worth reading the whole thing.
Ambulances Roll to Sound AIDS Alarm
P.K. Abdul Ghafour, Arab News
JEDDAH, 27 November 2004 — Ambulances usually save lives by racing back to hospitals, but a caravan of emergency vehicles left a hospital Thursday hoping to save lives by sounding the alarm about AIDS.
The quiet and generally modest lifestyles of the ordinary Saudi doesn’t offer protection against AIDS. This article talks about efforts to inform the public about the disease, which is still seen as a shameful catastrophe by most Muslims.
JEDDAH, 27 November 2004 — A young man and woman here have encountered a knotty problem and are using every possible avenue to unravel it. They want to tie the knot, but the girl’s father has thrown a wrench into their hopes by refusing permission for the marriage.
The religious rule that a parent or guardian authorize a marriage is still in play in Saudi Arabia, as this article from Arab News describes. Interesting.
UN Lauds Preparations for Municipal Elections
P.K. Abdul Ghafour, Arab News
JEDDAH, 27 November 2004 — A United Nations election expert has commended the Saudi government for making elaborate preparations for the upcoming municipal polls in the country. Dr. Ali Al-Jarbawi on Thursday visited polling stations in Riyadh and said the Saudi government has set up world-class facilities for the elections.
While the UN may be pleased with the system established to conduct the election, it doesn’t appear to be saying anything about women’s enfranchisement. At least not in this article….
Dr. Hatoon Ajwad Al-Fassi • Al-Eqtisadiah
While launching the municipal election campaign in Riyadh recently, Prince Mansour ibn Miteb, chairman of the general election committee, emphasized women’s right to participate in elections. He clarified that the word “muwatin†used in the election bylaw covers female citizens.
The question of women’s participation in the upcoming elections has two answers. The first, from the chairman of the general elections board is, “Yes.” That of the chief elections officer is, “No.”
This article, from the Arabic language Al-Eqtisadiah, pushes for a yes. There is still time, money, and staffing available to allow women to participate. After all, the author asks, didn’t Afghanistan manage to pull it off, even after years of Taliban rule, terror, and a war? Good article!
Charlatans Disguised as Reformers
Dr. Mohammed T. Al-Rasheed, comments@d-corner.com
There is a vicious war of words going on between those who classify themselves as “reformers†in this land. Not being privy to the art of dialogue or the science of logic and argumentation, the “reformers†do little more than appeal to popular emotions while ignoring facts and whatever might not support their positions. Television stations play on this inherent intellectual weakness and stoke the fires with personal attacks and possible scandal.
Dr. Al-Rasheed is back on the pages of Arab News with an excellent article blasting those who are intellectually lazy in trying to solve problems. If the questions cannot even be framed in a way that makes sense, how can they possibily be answered?
Al-Zarqawi Tape Raps Islamic Scholars
Associated Press
BAGHDAD, 25 November 2004 — An audiotape purportedly made by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi lashed out yesterday at Muslim scholars for not speaking out against US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying they have “let us down in the darkest circumstances.â€
It’s not just some American critics claiming that “the Muslim clerics aren’t speaking out!” Here, it’s none other than Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, the head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, claiming that the clerics aren’t doing enough. Clearly, both can’t be right.
East Vs. West: Let Us Isolate Extremists on Both Sides
Dr. Shafeeq N. Ghabra, Arab News
I find myself — an Arab citizen of the East who has lived for decades in the West — caught between two worlds. While I acquired my education in the United States and appreciate the Western experience, some Western approaches to Arab and Muslim issues trouble me. Something terribly wrong has led the East and the West down a road of mistrust and collision, pulling my soul in different directions. At this point, no region, nationality, or group of people has as problematic a relationship with the West as does the Arab/Muslim world. The “Eastern dilemma†is unique: While the peoples of the East hold great admiration for the West, they remain at the same time deeply suspicious and fearful of its intent. For a positive turn of events to take place, the West must re-evaluate its assessment of the causes of Eastern anger, protest, terrorism, and conflict with a view to reformulating its polices. At the same time, Easterners must confront the religious and political extremism within their societies. Without honest engagement on both sides, the current nightmare will continue for years to come.
This is an interesting look at the East-West divide, but quite disappointing. For a political scientist, Dr. Ghabra’s analysis is very weak. He doesn’t seem to realize that Americans–for one–do not consider themselves “The West”. Thus, allegations, accusations, or blame aimed at “The West” do not stick. Americans see themselves as “Americans”. Whatever the French or the British or the Germans may have done to the Ottomans and their empire, is none of our business.
Likewise, Americans do not identify themselves with contemporary French or German or Russian policies, nor with the EU, nor with Latin America. There are certainly similarities in our approaches, but they are not identical. Nor do we weight certain values in the same way.
We would be no wiser in trying to insist that Saudi Arabia, India, Papua New Guinea, and China adhere to the same sets of values and policies. They are certain “The East”, but… In the same way, we do not–with any knowledge of the countries–consider Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco to be “the same”. Every country has its own set of values, its own set of problems, its own set of hoped-for solutions, its own policies.
I don’t think Dr. Ghabra is actually asking for us to put all Arabs into one basket called “The Arabs”. I certainly know that many Arabs claim to feel as sense of “Arabness”, a oneness among all Arabs. But other than a mythical, romantic sensibility, this concept does not stand in the face of facts.
Saudi Women Seek End to Home Abuse
Maha Akeel, Arab News
JEDDAH, 25 November 2004 — A number of Saudi women have called for urgent state policies to protect victims of domestic violence in the country. “We want policy change so that courts and police can process cases of domestic violence and protect women,†a woman said under condition of anonymity.
Arab culture, based on the concepts of shame and honor, has tended to have a duality about it. That which happens within the home, for instance, is the business of only those within the home. When behavior takes place in a public space, however, it is everyone’s business. While there are many admirable aspects of this sort of social policy, it has flaws. Abuse of women, children, and the elderly were not notorious crimes in the past. If they happened, they happened within the family and it was to the family’s duty to keep it from becoming a matter of public notice.
One of the not-so-great “imports” from the West has been a disruption in family cohesion. Where once it was up to the extended family to take care of children, the aged, the mentally handicapped, the breakdown of extended families meant that social burdens were falling on smaller families, often unable to take care of them. Whether it was financial hardship or simply not knowing what to do about them, “burdens” became an issue and a social problem. Orphanages opened first in the early 1950s; homes for the elderly and the mentally challenged were a product of the ’80s.
But the problems of intra-family abuse remain. Increasingly, these problems are getting an airing in the Saudi media, something that simply could not have taken place even ten years ago. This article from the Arab News gives good insight into how Saudi women intend to deal with the problem of abused women.
Population Nears 23 Million – Census
SAUDI ARABIA s population has reached 22.67 million, including 6.14 million foreigners, according to census results published on Wednesday, SPA said.
The census, carried out in September, was the first since a 1992 count which put the population at 16.95 million, including 4.64 million foreigners.
Labor Minister Ghazi Al-Gosaibi earlier this year has said there were 8.8 million foreigners in the Kingdom.
Saudis account for 72.9 percent of the population and expatriates 27.1.
The census results detail that the population comprises 8,285,662 Saudi males (50.1 percent) and 8,243,640 Saudi females (49.9 percent), while among foreigners 4,271,598 are males (69.5 percent) and 1,872,638 females (30.5 percent).
Today’s Saudi Gazette reports on the newest Saudi population census figures.